The opportunity to export green hydrogen, a versatile carrier of renewable energies, raises hopes for "green" industrialization in regions of the Global South with favorable production potential. The current debate oscillates between developmental optimism on the one hand and a critical view of structural dependencies on the other. However, a coherent framework that explains under what conditions regions can use the energy transition to initiate transformative green and inclusive industrialization pathways is yet missing. More specifically, the multiscalar interrelationships of the emerging green hydrogen industry with the fossil fuel industry, as the incumbent regime, have not been explored in depth. This project posits that is necessary to analyze the actor groups, structural power imbalances, dynamics and dependencies that link these two industries to assess the opportunity space for green industrialization in Global South regions. To this end, this project uses recent conceptual advances in the writings on new path development (interpath relations, extra-regional resource mobilization, and (state-led) asset modification) to comparatively examine energy transition processes in two Global South case study regions where fossil fuel and green hydrogen paths intersect: the coastal region of Namibia and southern Vietnam. Applying a qualitative research design during two years of data collection, path tracing is used to understand interpath relationships, extra-regional resource mobilization, and asset modification in two different Global South contexts. The aim is to develop a conceptual framework that is capable of analyzing regional energy transition pathways and their potentials for transformative development in Global South regions and thereby contributing to the literature on sustainability transitions.

Duration: 2025-2026

Funding: DFG